Poker Skill vs Luck

Those unfamiliar with the intricacies of poker often call it a game of luck, but those who know the game well know that poker is all skill. There may be elements of luck in the game, but that’s the same with any game or sport. In the long run (which is all that counts), any single poker player’s results are determined completely by skill.

A part of poker’s reputation for being all luck is because of its close proximity to the gambling world. Wherever you see a poker table, there’s sure to be a blackjack or craps table not far away. Even though most poker games take place inside a casino, poker is a completely different game than traditional gambling games.

There are two key differences between poker and traditional gambling games like craps and roulette:

1. The player can make decisions that affect the outcome.
2. The game is played against other people, not against the house.

Those two differences are the reason why poker is a beatable game in the long run. There is no built in house advantage like there is at the roulette table. In poker, you don’t fight against the odds and hope to catch a lucky break; you fight against the other players. The house gets its money by taking a small rake out of every pot.

The fact that players get to make decisions that affect the outcome is also important. In almost every other game (except blackjack), once you place your bet, there’s nothing else you can do except watch. In poker, you get to make decisions after placing your bet. That means you can affect the outcome and the odds of you winning money.

Short Term vs. Long Term

Poker looks like luck in the short term because even the fishiest of players can get lucky and have a big day. That’s a result of short term variance. Even though a losing player will lose in the long run, anything can happen in the short term. Poker is a high variance game.

The longer you observe any player, the more that player’s actual results start to mirror that player’s expected results. The longer a fish plays poker, the more that player loses. The longer a winner plays, the more that player wins. It’s because over the long run, the odds prevail over short term variance.

That’s a part of the reason why you often see unknown players win large tournaments. In just a single tournament, simple variance can make any player a winner or loser regardless of that player’s skill level. In the long run, you start to see familiar faces at major tournaments. Players like Phil Ivey and Doyle Brunson win bracelet after bracelet because they play so many tournaments that their results mirror their expectations.

In cash games, the difference between luck and skill is even more obvious. Winning players in cash games rarely have a losing month. Sure, it does happen, but it doesn’t happen all the time. If poker was based on luck, there’s no way so many of the same players would have winning month after winning month at the tables.

A Single Hand vs. Many Hands

Even though skill is more observable over the long term, it still predominates in the short term. Many people will say that in the short term, poker is ALL luck – the winner of any single hand is determined by the cards. I disagree.

The reason I disagree is because with that logic, the entire game of poker would be luck. Poker is nothing more than a series of singular hands. If each hand was based on luck, then wouldn't a string of 10 hands be based on luck? Why does luck suddenly come into play after X number of hands?

Even in the course of one hand, poker is all based on skill. It doesn’t matter what cards are dealt to you in any one hand. What matters is how skillfully you play those cards. If you’re dealt something crappy, you use your knowledge of poker strategy to fold that hand. If you’re dealt a strong hand, you play that hand to the best of your ability. It doesn’t matter whether you win or lose the pot; what matters is you make the correct play each time. And that requires a tremendous amount of skill.

But still, some people will claim that a single hand of poker is all luck because not only can you not control the cards you’re dealt, but you also can’t control the community cards (when playing Texas Holdem). That’s true but that doesn’t make poker a game of luck. In chess, you can't control what the other player does. In football, you can’t control how hard the wind blows. What you can control is how you react to those uncontrollable conditions. In poker, you can’t control the community cards but you can control how you play the hand.

Poker is all skill, baby. Don't let the losing players and the uninformed tell you otherwise. Just because someone may have played a few poker games with his friends doesn’t make him an expert. Trust instead the people who play poker every day for years on end, who keep million-hand databases in Holdem Manager – the people who consistently win money. They are the experts and they will tell you poker is all skill.