Implied odds
Poker players love to discuss the "odds" in a
hand. These calculations usually involve
considerations for the money in the pot vs. the
money you would need to invest in relation to
your hand strength. The step above basic odds
would be implied odds. Implied odds throw a
fourth factor into the equation, the money that
could potentially be won. Sometimes you will
know that your opponent is going to put his
entire stack in the middle, other times it can
be hard to tell.
Implied odds are used to help a player decide
whether his hand has a lot of hidden value
potential. The best example of a scenario where
implied odds are important would be with any
pocket pair pre flop. Pocket pairs, especially
small ones, generally have little value in and
of themselves. It is easy for another player to
have a better pocket pair, or to flop a better
hand. Pocket pairs become really valuable when
they flop a set. Since your hand’s value is
largely masked, a lot of value is created out of
nowhere; this value pre flop would be considered
implied.
Determining your implied odds
The proper calculation of implied odds
requires knowing your stack size and your
opponent’s stack size. Every judgment you make
will be based off of how much you can expect to
possibly win. For example, if you have a $50
stack at 100NL and your opponent has a $100
stack it would be impossible for you to profit
any more than $50. The most common way that
players miscalculate their implied odds is by
disregarding their own stack size and only
looking at the other player’s.
Properly calculating your implied odds will
require a bit of judgment. There will be some
situations where you might expect to get a large
portion of the other player’s stack, but not the
entirety of it. Times like this will mean that
you need to skew your numbers a bit. Implied
odds, in a nutshell, are used after a player
determines how much they could possibly get from
another player. It is also important that there
is a good possibility. Remote possibilities do
us no good when determining implied odds.
Example of implied odds in action
Now the question is how to actually find out
what your implied odds need to be in order to
make your play profitable. If you are 3 bet and
are holding a hand like 88 against a tight
aggressive 3 bettor you would almost certainly
need to flop a set to get paid off. Since he is
tight aggressive it is likely that he has a big
pocket pair that would pay you off when you hit.
Now that you know that you can effectively get
the money in on the flop if you hit a set, you
need to see what the max amount is that you can
call pre flop to remain profitable.
You are playing .50/1 and are UTG. Your UTG
raise (with 88) was to $4.
It folds around to the button who makes it
$12. Everyone else folds and it is your turn to
act.
First consideration, your stack size…$132
Second consideration, his stack size…$126
So, the most that you can expect to profit in
this hand is $126. When he raises to $12 there
is an $8 differential between your open raise
and his 3 bet. If you will flop a set roughly
1:9 times you would be breaking even when your
stacks are $72 (9x8). Since the money available
far exceeds $72 you will be able to call his 3
bet and see the flop. You will miss the flop
sometimes, but in the long run your $8 call will
be profitable thanks to all of the times where
he pays you off when an 8 flops.
