Implied odds

Poker players love to discuss the "odds" in a hand. These calculations usually involve considerations for the money in the pot vs. the money you would need to invest in relation to your hand strength. The step above basic odds would be implied odds. Implied odds throw a fourth factor into the equation, the money that could potentially be won. Sometimes you will know that your opponent is going to put his entire stack in the middle, other times it can be hard to tell.

Implied odds are used to help a player decide whether his hand has a lot of hidden value potential. The best example of a scenario where implied odds are important would be with any pocket pair pre flop. Pocket pairs, especially small ones, generally have little value in and of themselves. It is easy for another player to have a better pocket pair, or to flop a better hand. Pocket pairs become really valuable when they flop a set. Since your hand’s value is largely masked, a lot of value is created out of nowhere; this value pre flop would be considered implied.

The proper calculation of implied odds requires knowing your stack size and your opponent’s stack size. Every judgment you make will be based off of how much you can expect to possibly win. For example, if you have a $50 stack at 100NL and your opponent has a $100 stack it would be impossible for you to profit any more than $50. The most common way that players miscalculate their implied odds is by disregarding their own stack size and only looking at the other player’s.

Properly calculating your implied odds will require a bit of judgment. There will be some situations where you might expect to get a large portion of the other player’s stack, but not the entirety of it. Times like this will mean that you need to skew your numbers a bit. Implied odds, in a nutshell, are used after a player determines how much they could possibly get from another player. It is also important that there is a good possibility. Remote possibilities do us no good when determining implied odds.

Now the question is how to actually find out what your implied odds need to be in order to make your play profitable. If you are 3 bet and are holding a hand like 88 against a tight aggressive 3 bettor you would almost certainly need to flop a set to get paid off. Since he is tight aggressive it is likely that he has a big pocket pair that would pay you off when you hit. Now that you know that you can effectively get the money in on the flop if you hit a set, you need to see what the max amount is that you can call pre flop to remain profitable.

You are playing .50/1 and are UTG. Your UTG raise (with 88) was to $4.

It folds around to the button who makes it $12. Everyone else folds and it is your turn to act.

First consideration, your stack size…$132

Second consideration, his stack size…$126

So, the most that you can expect to profit in this hand is $126. When he raises to $12 there is an $8 differential between your open raise and his 3 bet. If you will flop a set roughly 1:9 times you would be breaking even when your stacks are $72 (9x8). Since the money available far exceeds $72 you will be able to call his 3 bet and see the flop. You will miss the flop sometimes, but in the long run your $8 call will be profitable thanks to all of the times where he pays you off when an 8 flops.