How to Spot a Bluff

Casual poker players love to bluff because that’s what they’ve seen on TV for years. They assume that bluffing is a much bigger part of the game than it actually is. The good news for you is that it’s easy to spot many of these bluffs because of glaring errors your opponents make.

Note – this article talks about spotting bluffs but it does not advocate that you go around trying to pick off bluffs all the time. One bad habit I’ve seen many poker players fall into is trying to pick off bluffs left and right. Make sure you always have a strong reason to believe your opponent is bluffing before you call. And no, having “a gut feeling” is not a strong reason.

Inconsistencies in the Story

Throughout the course of a hand, your opponents take a series of actions such as bets, checks, raises and calls. The sum of those actions tells a story. For example, an opponent who raises before the flop and then places big bets all the way down is telling you that he has a powerful hand. That’s the story, anyways. It’s up to you to decide if you believe the story.

The biggest clue to a bluff should be inconsistencies in your opponent’s story. If look back at my poker hand reading article, you’ll see that I remind the reader that every opponent is a rational human being at heart. Any time your opponent makes moves that appear irrational or inconsistent with the rest of the story, there’s a good chance something fishy is going on.

Let’s say, for example, that you have an opponent who calls you down on the flop and turn. The board has two hearts on it and you suspect your opponent is chasing a flush. On the river, a non-heart falls and your opponent suddenly makes a big bet. This behavior appears irrational for two reasons:

1. If your opponent had a strong hand, he probably would have wanted to get more money in the pot. Most people only slowplay for one street but this person slow played all the way to the river.

2. Even more important is the fact that there were two flush cards on the board. Most people know better than to slow play strong hands all the way to the river on a dangerous board.

Now I will admit that those are hardly rock solid reason to believe your opponent is bluffing. Sometimes people do slowplay for multiple streets on dangerous boards. Look at it instead as one piece of evidence that points to a guilty verdict. We don’t have a slam dunk case yet, but we’re getting there. 

Bet Timing

Bet timing isn’t the most reliable tell in the world but once again, every little piece of information helps. Nobody is going to come down and tell us what our opponent has so we have to use every piece of information we can get. Bet timing just happens to be another piece of the puzzle.

Many times opponents will try to look strong by placing a big bet with no hesitation. The image they are trying to put out there is one of strength and a lack of fear. The problem is that this logic is backwards. If an opponent really wanted a call, he would instead try to look weak by hesitating before bluffing. Remember – bet timing isn’t perfectly reliable but it’s still worth noting.

Live Tells

In live poker, you can use your opponent’s body language to your advantage. One of the most classic signs of a bluff is the old “weak means strong and strong means weak” tell. If your opponent places a big bluff and then tries to stare you down or go out of his way to look confident, it often means your opponent is weak. He’s trying to scare you into folding by looking super confident in his hand.

I’m going to repeat one last time that this isn’t perfect information. Every opponent has a different style. The only thing this does is give you one more piece of evidence to add to the collection.

Put It All Together

At the end of the hand, you can take all that information you’ve collected and come to a decision. Look at your opponent’s betting patterns, check the story for inconsistencies and look for “strong means weak” tells. If most of the evidence points towards “bluff,” your opponent is probably bluffing. You don’t need to be right all the time; you just need to be right more often than wrong when you make those calls.